A lot has changed since Chelsea beat Arsenal 3-2 in a frenzied, calamitous match at Stamford Bridge in mid-August. Both Maurizio Sarri and Unai Emery have reconstructed their defences since that day (neither will struggle quite so badly with counter-attacks this time) and yet both teams have seen their goals dry up. Chelsea have scored five in their last five Premier League games, while Arsenal have scored one or fewer goals in six of their most previous ten matches in all competitions.
By this stage of the season we all know the general tactical philosophy of Sarri and Emery, and we know roughly how they will approach the game. Let’s focus, then, on exactly how both clubs can rediscover their attacking verve.
Here are five tactical questions ahead of Arsenal v Chelsea:
1) Without Ozil, can Arsenal find new ways to get creative?
There is a huge Ozil-shaped hole in the Arsenal team; unable to replace Mesut Ozil with another nimble creator who can link midfield and attack, Emery has apparently instructed his players to abandon the number ten zone altogether. They predominantly attack down the flanks, hoping that one-twos between the inside forwards and wing-backs will lead to chance creation from the byline (more on that later).
It isn’t really working, a fact made painfully obvious by the contrast between Arsenal’s attacking performance and the impact of Samir Nasri at West Ham United last weekend. In the early stages Alex Iwobi drifted into central positions to collect the ball, but it didn’t last; there just isn’t enough off-the-ball movement between Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to link with a static two-man midfield.
The solution is to play Aaron Ramsey in an advanced role, with Iwobi remaining nearby and Aubameyang dropping out of the side. The Gabon striker does not contribute enough outside the penalty box to justify selection while Arsenal are struggling for creativity. Oh and he misses an awful lot of chances.
2) And will Ozil’s absence create a new brittleness in midfield for Hazard to exploit?
But that isn’t very likely. Instead, Emery will probably deploy a similar 3-4-3 formation that, without Ozil as a fulcrum, stretches too wide in pursuit of hitting the flanks. Nasri and Marko Arnautovic found so much joy at the London Stadium because West Ham were afforded space to break centrally; Granit Xhaka and Matteo Guendouzi were both dragged forward in the hope of playing a probing vertical pass, and each was pulled wide to link with the wing-backs.
Consequently West Ham were given huge areas of the pitch to stride into, a pattern Chelsea can anticipate repeating this weekend. Eden Hazard, whether dropping off as a false nine or drifting infield from the left, loves receiving the ball on the half-turn; it should be easy for the Belgian to find space behind Guendouzi, stride forward and feed one of the Chelsea wingers.
3) Will Kante play a key role in overcoming Chelsea’s creativity problems?
Chelsea are unlikely to overcome their own goalscoring issues, however, unless Hazard receives more support. The main reason Sarri’s side have slowed down is Chelsea’s increasing propensity to funnel everything through Hazard, a strategy opponents have clocked onto by doubling – or even tripling – up on the number ten.
There is a strong correlation between the games in which N’Golo Kante regularly bursts forward (centrally) and the games in which Chelsea score at least twice. His movement ahead of Fabian Delph was the difference between Chelsea and Manchester City in December and he was again instrumental in a 2-1 win over Newcastle last weekend. By contrast, he was rarely able to break ahead of the play in the 0-0 draw with Southampton or 1-0 defeat to Spurs.
Given the brittleness of Arsenal’s midfield – and Chelsea’s numerical advantage in this area – it is imperative that Kante is given the freedom to sprint forward on the counter-attack when the situation arises. His individual battle for space with Guendouzi or Xhaka might look innocuous, but it could end up making the difference.
4) Can Iwobi and Kolasinac combine successfully against Azpilicueta?
Until Arsenal work out how to restructure their attack, their best route to goal is the one-twos between Sead Kolasinac and Iwobi. Only Liverpool and Crystal Palace attack down the left more frequently than Arsenal (42% of the time), reflecting their reliance on Iwobi’s jinks inside and Kolasinac’s storming runs to the byline.
Chelsea’s aren’t exactly vulnerable in this area – it is Kante’s side, after all – but nevertheless Arsenal’s interplay on the left will feature heavily. Should Cesar Azpilicueta be left two-on-one, with Kante out of the game, then Arsenal fans can be hopeful of Antonio Rudiger getting caught in two minds from the right side of central defence.
Alex Keble