April, 2018 in Rome. Matteo Salvini, League Party secretary, during a second round of consultations of political parties for the formation of the new government at the Quirinal Palace. Giuseppe Ciccia/ Press Association. All rights reserved.A new
Italian government is in the making, with an unprecedented alliance between the
Five Stars Movement (33% of votes in the March 2018 elections; 36% of seats in
the House of Deputies) and the Lega (17% of votes; 20% of seats). The view that
‘populist barbarians have conquered Rome’ is a gross misunderstanding. Lega has
already governed for nine years in Berlusconi governments supporting every
neoliberal policy that has favoured
finance, business and the European integration they now criticise.

The
Five Stars are ready to compromise on everything with anyone – Washington,
Brussels, business, finance, the military – for their turn in power, knowing
that their large support is at best temporary. The result – rhetoric aside – is
that pro-rich neoliberal policies dominate the new government agenda, tinted
with a shade of populism, offering modest pro-poor and harsh anti-immigrant
action. Lib-pop politics is how we
might describe Italy’s new political experiment. The
Five Stars are ready to compromise on everything with anyone…  knowing that their large support is at best
temporary.

Lega’s rising political hegemony

The
clear political winner is Lega’s leader, Matteo Salvini, who has turned the
Northern ‘separatist’ Lega Nord into a nationwide nationalist, reactionary
party, mirroring France’s Front National. He quadrupled Lega’s votes (in 2013
they were 4%); in Northern counties of Lombardy and Veneto Lega reaching 33 to
38% of the votes, with the centre-right coalition well over 50% (an analysis
of the
election results is here). He ran in a centre-right
coalition where he emerged as the clear leader, with the Lega obtaining more
votes than Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (14%) and the post-fascists of Fratelli
d’Italia stuck on 4%.

He
managed to obtain from his coalition partners a green light for the government
alliance with the Five Stars, thus keeping together – in spite of squabbles – a
coalition that last March had procured 37% of votes and is close to obtaining
in any future election an overall majority of seats (within reach if they
obtain about 42% of votes under current electoral rules). His centre-right
allies promised mild opposition and parliamentary support for the (many)
policies they will like. Salvini is in the unique position of leading from the
extreme right a broad centre-right coalition that includes moderates and élite
groups; in no other major European country does such an alliance exist. Salvini is in the unique position of leading from the
extreme right a broad centre-right coalition that includes moderates and élite
groups.

The
political momentum for Salvini grew with the elections in two regions held in
April 2018. Lega won in the north-eastern region of Friuli-Venezia Giulia with
the centre-right coalition getting 63% of votes, Lega alone obtaining 35% and
providing the President of the Region, while the Five Stars slipped to 7%.

In the
small Southern Molise region, the centre-right coalition won with a Forza
Italia candidate on 49% of votes (Lega had 8%), while the Five Stars list
obtained 32%. Current polls reflect this trend of a growing Lega and a stable
Five Stars consensus; when Five Stars support weakens – as happened in the
peripheries of Rome and Turin, run by weak Five Stars mayors – Salvini is set
to grab a large part of their disappointed voters. Thus, the political outlook
suggests Salvini as a likely winner of a real majority for the centre-right
whenever new elections take place, giving him the upper hand in talks for the
new government – the alternatives being an early vote in autumn or in May 2019 when
they could be held together with the European elections.

Finally,
Lega’s hegemonic power is marked also by its ability to combine power and
protest; it was in power throughout all Berlusconi’s governments, but is not
perceived as responsible for the current crisis. At the same time, Lega
capitalises on widespread protests with its rhetorical challenge to European
rules, harsh treatment of migrants and anti-tax, anti-bureaucracy agenda.

Five Stars’ disorientation

Among
the Five Stars of the movement founded by Beppe Grillo, no ‘pole star’ for its
political project has been found; the only priority now is to claim power,
regardless of type of alliance and programme.

Anti-corruption
and bottom-up democracy remain little more than background noise; 94% of Five
Star supporters approved the government programme in one afternoon’s electronic
voting; top-down decisions on policy priorities far from the Five Stars’
traditional demands have not been challenged by the grassroots; only a
left-wing prospective labour minister, Pasquale Tridico, resigned after the
programme was announced.

The
difficult search for a Prime Minister different from the Five Stars leader
Luigi Di Maio reflected the political fragility of a top-down model preventing
the emergence of a broader political leadership.

The
fundamental weakness of the Five Stars is in their very post-ideological
posture. With the political ‘caste’ as their main enemy, and the illusion of
moving beyond the left-right divide, they have yet to learn how to use
political power to deal with contrasting class interests, and how their
policies may sustain or destroy their electoral consensus. Five Stars have yet to learn how to use political power
to deal with contrasting class interests, and how their policies may sustain or
destroy their electoral consensus.

In
contrast, the Lega has strengthened its right-wing ideological roots, providing
identities and a worldview for its voters. No surprise then that many working
class and poorer Italians, after welcoming the anti-establishment nature of the
Five Stars, are now ending up as Lega voters.

The government programme

The
asymmetry between a Lega with clear priorities – in terms of class and nation –
and a Five Stars with its only concern to strike a deal, has produced a
government programme that includes some general concerns of the Five Stars – on
legality and minimum income – and most practical measures designed by the Lega
– on taxes and migrants.

Demands
for renegotiating European treaties and restoring national sovereignty in some
areas are enough to open up a rhetorical confrontation with Brussels – and much
attention from the media. But they have little concrete content.

The
most important specific policy that will be introduced by the new government is
the Italian version of the ‘flat tax’; firms and individuals will pay either 15
or 20% of income taxes, as opposed to the current 43% for the top income
bracket.

It is
clearly stated that no wealth tax will be introduced (Italy has often been
criticized by the EU for having cancelled real estate taxes on home-owners).
Tax controls on Italy’s large number of small firms and self-employed will be
scaled down, basically legalising tax evasion for a large number of right-wing,
medium and high-income voters. Tax controls on
Italy’s large number of small firms and self-employed will be scaled down,
basically legalising tax evasion for a large number of right-wing, medium and
high-income voters.

For
financial firms and banks no control or limit on their activities will be
introduced. This will make Italy a neoliberal business paradise, competing with
Ireland in the race to the bottom of business taxes in Europe, offering some
room for the survival of Italy’s small businesses dramatically hit by a decade
of crisis.

In
this way, the transfer of income to the richest 20% of Italians will be huge,
with the very rich benefiting the most. Berlusconi would have never been able
with his past majorities to introduce such a pro-rich agenda.

Such
measures are the easiest to implement, as they simply scale back state
redistribution, leaving unequal outcomes of market processes untouched. More
difficult is the implementation of the only ‘pro-poor’ measure long championed
by the Five Stars: the so-called ‘citizen income’. In the programme this is
reduced to an income support of €780 a month for a maximum of two years for
unemployed Italians (no residents with foreign citizenship will obtain it)
ready to accept any job offer; no figure for potential recipients or funding
for implementing it is mentioned. Berlusconi would
have never been able with his past majorities to introduce such a pro-rich
agenda.

But
the darkest success of the Lega in the government programme is the chapter on
migrants, envisaging a stop to the flows of refugees, changes in European rules
on asylum and free movement, and proposing the repatriation of the 500,000
immigrants with irregular status now present in Italy.

Combined
with harsh measures on law and order, this policy caters to the ‘fear effect’
that is behind the growth of Lega’s support. In parallel the rise of the Five
Stars was based on a ‘poverty effect’ – especially in the South (see here).
The tragedy is that the poorest Italians have overwhelmingly
voted for two political forces that are now creating
the most pro-rich, pro-business government in
Italy’s history. Even worse, Lib-pop
politics could be just the starter for an outright far-right political
future.

This article was originally published on Social Europe
on May 21, 2018. The Italian
version is here.