Second hosts fourth on Sunday in a match neither side will relish.
Manchester City’s defeat to Newcastle United makes this a must-win game for Pep Guardiola’s side, and although Arsenal’s defensive issues make them vulnerable to a high-pressing City team, it won’t be easy.
Arsenal’s diamond 4-4-2 could be the ideal formation to nullify City’s attack, plus Unai Emery’s own hard-pressing, counter-attacking instincts can pile on the misery if City are anywhere near as tentative as they were at St. James’ Park.
Here are five tactical questions ahead of Manchester City v Arsenal:
1) Will Emery’s diamond 4-4-2 stunt the influence of Silva and De Bruyne?
Arsenal began with a diamond 4-4-2 against Cardiff City but, struggling badly, abandoned it at half-time; there isn’t enough creativity among the defensive midfielders for this formation to work against defensive opponents. However, its success in shutting down Chelsea last month suggests Emery will probably continue with the diamond on Sunday, albeit with Aaron Ramsey replacing Mesut Ozil at the tip.
It could be just the formation needed to limit the effectiveness of Kevin de Bruyne and David Silva. The three-man shield of Granit Xhaka, Lucas Torreira, and Matteo Guendouzi can spread to shut down the half-space channels where Silva and De Bruyne operate, forcing Man City into slow possession football that allows Arsenal to grow into the game.
How well Torreira and Guendouzi can drift between the flanks and central midfield – tracking the playmakers while ensuring the full-backs aren’t left alone to deal with Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling – will define Arsenal’s performance.
2) Will Arsenal’s calamitous defence give Sane the chance to shine?
Then again, the complexities of the midfield battle will be of little significance should Arsenal’s injury-hit defence perform as clumsily as it did on Tuesday night. Nacho Monreal was all over the place and Shkodran Mustafi was no better, which could mean City simply tear through the back four and cruise to victory.
Of even greater concern to Arsenal fans is Stephan Lichtsteiner’s form. With Hector Bellerin injured and Ainsley Maitland-Niles a doubt he could start as he did at Cardiff, when he was replaced by Carl Jenkinson on the hour.
If he does feature his direct opponent will be Sane, a man who will ruthlessly expose Lichtsteiner’s chronic lack of pace and and positional awareness. Too often the Swiss right-back gets tight to his man only to be turned, badly exposing his fellow defenders. Sane’s runs in between Lichtsteiner and Mustafi may prove deadly, causing the sort of defensive panic that Sergio Aguero has made a career out of capitalising upon.
It is one of several obvious mismatches in the Arsenal defence that could render tactical analysis inconsequential, especially given City will be riled up after their defeat to Newcastle. Arsenal’s only real hope is that their diamond midfield keeps De Bruyne and Silva at bay.
3) Can Ramsey and Aubameyang break beyond Danilo?
The obvious weak point in the City team is left-back Danilo, and it just so happens that Arsenal have tended to lean to the right when on the attack in recent weeks. Ramsey is more comfortable drifting out to this side to combine with Alexandre Lacazette, the most creative attacker in the team now Ozil has been frozen out of the big games. There’s no space for Alex Iwobi.
If Arsenal are competitive in terms of possession then there is a real possibility Lacazette, peeling wide, can isolate Danilo and get in behind the City back line via Ramsey. Torreira is unlikely to venture forward frequently given the lurking threat of Silva, but nevertheless he is the most aggressive, forward-thinking of the three central midfielders – and Silva won’t track him should Torreira decide to join a counter-attack. Danilo cannot be trusted to defend this flank alone, not if Arsenal’s formation has already ruffled City’s feathers.
4) Will Walker’s positional play decide the outcome?
Another potential problem for City should Emery use a diamond is that Guardiola may feel the need to use inverted full-backs to protect against rapid transitions; so many bodies in the middle of the park means Fernandinho is at risk of being overrun. Danilo and Kyle Walker spent too much of the defeat to Newcastle sat alongside Fernandinho, which is partly why they couldn’t break down the defensive blockade. Sane and Sterling needed an overlapping run to help them out.
If Arsenal are happy to sit deep and absorb pressure, then Walker’s role could be crucial. If he consistently hugs the right touchline, making runs on the outside of Sead Kolasinac to provide a longer pass option over the top, then Arsenal can be pulled apart. Kolasinac really can’t be trusted defensively. But should Guardiola instruct Walker to play more conservatively then we could see a repeat of the sluggishness that cost them against Newcastle.
5) Will respective high pressing create a frantic first half?
With so much at stake it is unlikely this will be an end-to-end game for the full 90, but there is a distinct possibility it will be open for the first 20 minutes or so, potentially making it the most important period of the match.
Arsenal’s incessant desire to pass the ball out from the back, regardless of who they’re playing, is designed to draw the opposition forward; City’s high pressing could catch those nervy defenders in possession, but it could just as easily see Arsenal outmanouvre City and then attack with piercing directness in behind. Either way, that means a stretched contest.
Fernandinho’s mistake against Newcastle – on a day when City frequently misplaced simple passes – will encourage the visitors to press high themselves, albeit only until the game settles into a discernible pattern. A high press could suffocate both defences, with forwards leaving their teammates vulnerable and isolated too.
Maybe, just maybe, we’ll get a thriller.
Alex Keble is on Twitter