The EU hopes Theresa May’s sudden U-turn Tuesday on calling a snap election will give her a stronger political mandate to negotiate an orderly U.K. withdrawal from the bloc, giving the whole painful process greater clarity and predictability.
That was the view of senior officials in Brussels and some European capitals after the U.K. prime minister’s surprise decision to hold a general election on June 8, despite her previous insistence that she wouldn’t call an early vote.
“The chances for a good outcome of the Brexit negotiations have just gone up tremendously,” said a senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Instead of being at the mercy of the Brexiteers, May will now get a very, very strong mandate that will allow her to negotiate a reasonable deal with the EU,” the senior official said.
By this line of thinking, a strong victory for May and her Conservative Party, which is widely predicted by opinion polls in Britain, would strengthen the hand of the prime minister who personally opposed Brexit before last year’s referendum.
That, in turn, would serve to marginalize some of the loudest and most bellicose “Leave” supporters — in Parliament, in the British press, and anywhere else — who might otherwise pose an obstacle to an orderly withdrawal of the U.K.
“Many EU insiders advocated over the last six months that she use the time until we are ready on our side with guidelines, directives and French elections to strengthen her domestic position,” the official continued. “It is a very good sign that she now came to the same conclusion. For the EU, it is best to have a strong counterpart in these negotiations in order to achieve a good outcome.”
If the Tories, led by May, win a large majority in Parliament, the prime minister or her chief negotiator, David Davis, would test credulity if they tried to tell their EU counterparts they could not sell a compromise to rank-and-file followers whom they would clearly control.
“After Britain’s Brexit vote, predictability and reliability are more important than ever. For sure, any longer period of uncertainty doesn’t do the political and economic relations between Britain and the EU any good,” German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel told Germany’s Funke media group.
“Hopefully, the new election announced today by Prime Minister May can lead to more clarity and predictability in the negotiations with the European Union,” said the German Social Democrat.
Tension rises
The dramatic move from London, by a prime minister who studiously avoids theatrics, doesn’t change the fact that for most EU leaders, Brexit is a tragedy — or, in the words of European Council President Donald Tusk, an unfolding horror movie. “It was Hitchcock who directed Brexit,” he wrote on Twitter in response to May’s announcement. “First an earthquake and the tension rises.”
Tusk was apparently referencing a quote attributed to the legendary producer Samuel Goldwyn, which goes: “We want a story that starts with an earthquake and builds up to a climax.” The notion of Brexit as a show with a lousy ending has been a recurring theme in Brussels. “In many ways, this is an absurd tragedy,” a senior EU official said recently, “in which all of us must play our predestined roles.”
One impact of May’s election move could be to deprive the EU of its clearest and most important advantage in the fast-approaching Brexit negotiations: time.
While Brexit was a body blow to Brussels, one thing that has worked in the EU’s favor virtually from the moment the results of last year’s referendum became clear is the timetable: London was under pressure to formally trigger Article 50, a process that ultimately took nine months; and the U.K. faces a cliff edge if a withdrawal agreement can’t be concluded within a two-year deadline.
On top of that, May — who was appointed prime minister by her fellow Conservatives after David Cameron’s resignation — had been facing the prospect of a national election in May 2020, which would have been just 15 months after the U.K.’s scheduled withdrawal from the EU, a point at which the pain of Brexit is likely to be felt far more acutely than any gain.
Back from the edge
An early U.K. election would reconfigure the calendar and shift political pressure onto Brussels.
Holding a June vote would push the next U.K. election to 2022, giving May breathing room for a transition period to ease Britain out of the EU and vastly diminishing the risk of a cliff-edge scenario. It would also grant her government crucial time to negotiate a trade deal with the bloc — all before voters get another chance to express their views at the ballot box.
For sure, Brussels is not opposed to a transition or a trade deal, nor does it see any harm in a slower, longer withdrawal process that would presumably maintain some U.K. contributions to the EU budget.
That said, the pressure and distraction of looming elections will now be on Brussels, rather than London. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk both end their terms in 2019, meaning the late stages of the Brexit negotiations could be complicated by the battles over who will succeed them. At that point, May and her Tories, presuming they win the snap elections this June, would be less than halfway through their five-year term.
The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, who has called repeatedly for an open and transparent approach to the talks, was notably silent Tuesday. A Commission official said that the EU’s negotiating positions and overall strategy would not change as a result of the U.K. election, nor would the vote alter the schedule of formal negotiations, long-expected to begin in late May or early June.
“This does not change things,” the official said. “We are ready. Early June was always the calendar.”
The EU’s chief spokesman, Margaritis Schinas, speaking at a regularly-scheduled midday news conference, had just learned of May’s decision and said it was too soon for any detailed comment.
Schinas did, however, note that the EU was typically supportive of democratic elections. (The upcoming stampede of elections in France, the U.K. and Germany — the bloc’s largest members — may well test the bounds of that appetite but for the moment, Schinas held to his positive line.)
“The only thing I can say is, the EU is a union of democracies,” he said. “There are elections everywhere; it’s natural.” He added: “Elections are good. We are in favor, generally.”
‘Generally’ may have been an overstatement: From the Brexit referendum last June to an Italian referendum in December that led to the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, to a much-criticized referendum this weekend in Turkey, the EU has often found elections over the past 12 months to be rather nettlesome.
Other EU officials were also outwardly positive in their response to May’s move, though some had a sharp edge.
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Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian prime minister and prominent MEP who is the European Parliament’s designated Brexit negotiator, said he would seek to partner with the victors in the U.K. elections.
“As the EP Brexit negotiator, I will work with a new government for the best common future possible,” Verhofstadt wrote on Twitter, with his reference to a “new government” — perhaps led by May, perhaps not — adding a dash of snark to an otherwise collegial post.