Lower emissions from cars may be achieved from improvements that cost little or nothing, a study conducted for the European Commission suggests. It estimates that 11%-15% of emissions reductions come from technological improvements that are excluded from analysis because they do not incur costs – a possible explanation for the sharp drop in emissions since 2002, which was not accompanied by the increase in vehicle prices in the way that the industry had predicted.

“Cost claims from the industry in the past have been exaggerated,” said Jos Dings, director of T&E, a green transport group. “Four years ago, the industry claimed factories would close and cars would become unaffordable.” ACEA, the European car-manufacturers’ association, said it was still studying the report.

Emissions limits

The report signals the start of EU efforts to design the parameters of a limit of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometre that it will impose on passenger-car emissions in 2020. The automotive industry is already on track to meet a 2015 limit of 130g/km.

The study recommends a vehicle-based limit on car emissions in 2020 in addition to the 95g/km limit, which is based on a fleet average. This would overcome the disadvantage of the current method, in which emissions of dirtier vehicles can be offset by cleaner vehicles, it claims.

The study suggests that a vehicle-based limit for cars would spur development of new technologies in high-emission vehicles, which would then filter down to the average vehicle.

But the authors acknowledge that a few thousand low-volume, high-performance vehicles would be unable to meet the new emissions limit – resulting in the exclusion of some luxury sports cars from the market. Carmakers might be able to pay a special premium for selling these vehicles.

The report is critical of extending the controversial ‘super credits’ that carmakers can receive for producing cars that emit less than 50g/km – mostly electric vehicles. These credits allow firms to produce other, higher-emission vehicles, which has prompted criticism from green groups. Extending the super-credits scheme past 2020 would erode the net impact of the legislation, they say. Even extending it beyond 2016 would discourage green improvements of high-emissions vehicles.

The report concludes that there is no convincing motivation for a combined target for cars and vans after 2020, an idea being considered by the Commission. Vans will be limited to emitting 175g/km from 2017.