Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, is to hold talks with the European Union’s leadership in Brussels on Tuesday (1 March) on his country’s stalled bid to join the Union.

On his first visit to Brussels since mid-2009, Erdogan is scheduled to meet José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, and Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council.

Since June last year, Turkey has opened no new policy chapter in the negotiations – the longest period of diplomatic drought since formal membership talks began in 2005.

It is not for want of material to discuss. Turkey has opened fewer than half of the chapters into which the accession talks are divided. But most of the remaining chapters have been blocked, primarily because of Turkey’s continuing occupation of around one-third of Cyprus, an EU member since 2004. Only social policy and employment, public procurement, and competition policy are at present eligible for discussion.

Election distraction

Preparations are most advanced on the competition policy chapter, and the chapter might still be opened before Hungary ends its turn holding the rotating presidency of the Council of Ministers, in June. But preparations are likely to be distracted by a parliamentary election in Turkey on 12 June: the government is not expected to propose major new legislation related to its EU bid before then.

“Turkey invested a lot, of course there is a lot to do, and it is difficult because elections are coming and it makes life more complicated,” Eniko Gyori, Hungary’s state minister for European affairs told European Voice. “The room for manoeuvre is limited because of the blockage of so many chapters.”

Competition policy is so complex that candidate countries have often tackled negotiations on it only towards the end of accession talks – as happened with Croatia, which started formal negotiations at the same time as Turkey and is preparing to complete them later this year. “If you look back at the history of enlargement, competition was always one of the last chapters to close because it is so sensitive; it is about industries, the survival of industries, it is about secrets and so on,” Gyori said.

In Turkey’s case, there is a political imperative to open the few chapters that can still be opened, Turkish and EU diplomats agree. “The opening of chapters is the only visible part of our work on accession,” a diplomat said, “and we need to keep the momentum”.

A Commission official also noted that the countries holding the rotating presidency – which, under the Lisbon treaty, retain responsibility for accession negotiations – were keen to demonstrate progress by opening new chapters.

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