The Octagon returns to FOX for their annual April event taking place in Tampa, Florida. The event is headlined by a light heavyweight bout as former title challenger Glover Teixiera takes on former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans. There has been a facelift to this event in recent times, and if you set lineups early, you’ve had to adjust. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy lineups for Saturday’s UFC On FOX 19 event.

STUDS

Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400)

Despite the fact he hasn’t fought in two years, Khabib Nurmagomedov is the top play on Saturday night’s card. He has the highest salary of all the competitors on the card, and he enters the event with a perfect 22-0 record and was the last man to defeat current UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos. He was supposed to be in the headline position against Tony Ferguson, but an injury forced Ferguson out, and Nurmagomedov gets a late-notice bout against the debuting Darrell Horcher. That likely works out for him as Nurmagomedov really needs a tune-up after being out of action for so long. The fact he is an undefeated top contender fighting a newcomer makes him a big favorite, but he should get the job done. Remember, Nurmagomedov holds the UFC record for most takedowns in a fight, and whether or not he finishes Horcher, as long as the injuries haven’t slowed him down, he should be able to rack up the points.

John Dodson ($11,200)

John Dodson has the second-highest salary of the competitors on the card, and it is interesting as he is moving back up to 135 pounds on Saturday night after unsuccessfully challenging for the UFC Flyweight Championship twice. Dodson is small for 135 pounds, but he does hold a win over former champion T.J. Dillashaw. Dodson’s only two UFC losses have come to current 125-pound king Demetrious Johnson, and he was competitive in both bouts. Dodson is looking to make a title run at bantamweight, and it begins with a tough opponent in Manvel Gamburyan. Gamburyan has been inconsistent during his UFC career but is 2-0 since making his own move down to 135 pounds. Despite losing one-third of his fights, Gamburyan has only been finished three times in his eight losses. However, Dodson hits very hard, and he finished Dillashaw, the only man to do so. Dodson is a strong bet to score not just a win, but become the first man to finish Gamburyan since Jose Aldo. He is worth having on your roster.

VALUE PLAYS

Michael Chiesa ($9,400)

Michael Chiesa is an excellent value play for this card, coming in at a $9,400 salary. He fights Beneil Dariush, who has won five straight fights, but was gifted a decision in his last bout with Michael Johnson. When you look at a similar recent opponent in Jim Miller, both men scored wins over him, but while Dariush dominated Miller in a decision, Chiesa finished Miller, something that only Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone had done previously. Chiesa and Dariush have similar records in the UFC, but Chiesa has had the tougher road. He really should be favored in this fight, and that makes him a solid value pick to score a win. He may not finish Dariush, but when I look at this card, it screams a lot of decisions. Chiesa is gritty and tough, so while it may go the distance, he is a sneaky pick to score the finish. Either way, I see him winning.

Tecia Torres ($9,200)

Tecia Torres is another good value play at a $9,200 salary. She is undefeated in her seven professional fights, though she has yet to score a finish. She racks up points, though, and she has the edge of holding a prior victory over her opponent, Rose Namajunas. Namajunas has won her last two fights in dominant fashion by scoring finishes, and that has her the betting favorite here. However, she is just 4-2 in her official career, and while she has improved tremendously, Torres likely has her number, especially if this fight stays on the feet. Torres is better with the striking, but Namajunas is world-class for a strawweight on the mat. Tortes would be best served keeping it on the feet and racking up points by strikes. Again, on a card that could feature a lot of decisions, she is a good underdog pick to score a win, and there might not be a lot of those. Risky play, but she has some solid value.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Hacran Dias ($9,600)

Hacran Dias has an impressive overall record and will be in a high-profile bout against Cub Swanson on the main card of Saturday’s event. Swanson is still ranked in the top ten despite two straight losses, but those came to current top five fighters in Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway. Swanson has taken a year off to recover from injuries and should come in fresh and is eager to get back into the title picture. Dias has struggled with opponents ranked highly, with UFC losses to Nik Lentz and Ricardo Lamas, and he hasn’t shown the ability to finish opponents inside the Octagon. He isn’t overly flashy and doesn’t rack up a lot of fantasy points, and I see him having trouble with Swanson. Swanson can be finished, but I haven’t seen anything from Dias to make me confident he’ll finish him, let alone take home the victory. Dias is an easy pass for me.

Bethe Correia ($9,500)

Bethe Correia is an easy fighter to avoid. Despite having a 9-1 career record, she just hasn’t shown anything that shows she is a good fighter. Of her three UFC wins, one came over a now retired opponent, one over an opponent who is now more focused on professional wrestling over fighting, and one who has lost four of her eight career fights. Correia folded under the pressure of her first tough match-up against Ronda Rousey, and she has a tough opponent in the gritty Raquel Pennington on Saturday. Don’t let Pennington’s 6-5 record fool you- she is very talented. Despite being just 3-2 inside the Octagon, the two losses came by split decision, including taking now former champion Holly Holm, to the limit, and she could have easily gotten the decision in both losses and be 5-0 inside the UFC right now. Pennington should get this win, and that makes Correia a fighter to definitely avoid on Saturday.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400), Oluwale Bamgbose ($10,500), Michael Chiesa ($9,400), Court McGee ($9,300), Tecia Torres ($9,200)

I like Khabib Nurmagomedov as my top play for the event. I’m honestly a little scared of his two-year layoff, but if he hasn’t been slowed by the injuries, he could be champion. With him fighting an opponent making his UFC debut on short notice, it should be an easy night for Nurmagomedov to rack up the points. I also like Oluwale Bamgbose despite the fight he is fighting on just one week’s notice. His opponent, Cezar Ferreira, has been disappointing in his UFC career, has been bouncing between camps and weight classes, and hasn’t shown much of a chin. Bamgbose is a heavy hitter and is a good bet to score a finish. I like Michael Chiesa, Court McGee and Tecia Torres as underdogs primed to win. Chiesa should be favored over Beneil Dariush, and he is a sneaky play to get a win. Tecia Torres has the prior win over Rose Namajunas, and despite her inability to score a finish win, I like her chances in getting a win. Court McGee is a very solid fighter and showed no ring rust in his return from a long layoff. He should be even better in his second return bout, and he has a favorable fight against Santiago Ponzinibbio. I like him to get a finish by submission.

PAUL FONTAINE- Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400), Glover Teixeira ($10,300), Cub Swanson ($9,800), Court McGee ($9,300), Tecia Torres ($9,200)

For the record, I was gonna pick Hendo in what I thought was the best value on the card. Such is life, with Lyoto Machidar (not a spelling mistake…sound it out) having spoiled that for all of us. Glover Teixeira should be able to stop Rashad Evans in the main event. I know he’s only been stopped once in his career (at the hands of a cheater who does not deserve two mentions in my paragraph) but Teixeira has looked really good in finishing OSP and Patrick Cummins in his last two fights. Nurmagomedov should make quick work of the debuting Horcher. Horcher is a good fighter who I’ve seen fight several times on smaller shows but Khabib is one of the best in the world and he’s trying to secure a title shot. Tecia Torres and Rose Namajunas is going to be a great fun fight. I think that both Torres is going to light her up and as long as she can keep it standing, she’ll either score a late KO or score over 100 strikes on her way to a decision victory. Former TUF winner Court McGee has won 3 of his last 4, including a win over Robert Whitaker, who’s proving to be one of the best in the division. My final pick is Cub Swanson who will be looking to make an impression after being bumped onto the main card after the Dan Henderson-Cheating Brazilian fight was cancelled. Since 2012 his only two losses have been to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway, two of the very best fighters in the division. Along the way, he’s scored several KO’s, including wins over Charles Oliveira, Dennis Siver and Ross Pearson….all much tougher competition than he’s facing on Saturday. 

PEACH MACHINE- Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400), John Dodson ($11,200), Tecia Torres ($9,200), Rashad Evans ($9,100), Drew Dober ($8,800)

John Dodson probably scores more points than any other DK player ever. I’m just guessing, but it makes sense. Maybe DJ scores more because he’s always in five rounders, but Dodson should whip Gambo with his speed. Yes, I call him Gambo. Rashad is my heart pick. I think he should beat Glover with his speed too, but I wouldn’t be taking him if I hadn’t named one of my dogs after him. Nurmo’s oppo is taking this baby on short notice and at a catch weight. That’s great for Nurmo. TT has already beaten Rose, and I like her here to do it again. Dober is another heart pick. I think he’s looked really tough his last couple of fights, and he’s got a tough oppo but Dober always swings for the fences.