Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro. March 6, 2017. Xinhua/SIPA USA/PA Images. All rights reserved.
The Venezuelan
government’s electoral machinery – a ferocious, tightly-knit, socio-political
power structure coalesced around the Great Patriotic Pole, led by the most
powerful political party in
Venezuela’s contemporary history: the PSUV (estimated membership: 5 million) –
has set himself an aim: ensuring 10 million votes for President Maduro at the
May 20 elections.
This means targeting the so-called Ni-Nis, a large majority of voters who consider themselves “neither
Left nor Right”, and whose first electoral choice is a non-existing,
independent candidate, not aligned with
the traditional parties. Their dislike for Maduro is matched by their distrust
of the opposition leaders.
Under Maduro’s mandate, Venezuela has experienced continuous socio-political unrest, hyperinflation, scarcity and crime.
The Conservative opposition is
boycotting the elections, which they consider illegitimate for they have been
called by the Left-leaning National Constituent Assembly. For this very same
reason, it has also withdrawn its support for the best-placed independent
presidential candidate, Henri Falcón.
Nevertheless, opinion polls –
including official ones – show that a vast majority of Venezuelans wants to
vote. Overall voter intention ranges from 65% to 80%.
Electoral non-competitiveness – which is the
other main reason why the Conservative opposition is boycotting the elections –
means that, even though recent data show Maduro’s approval ratings at their
worst (18% to 26%), the incumbent President benefits from the fact that Venezuelans
are not provided with candidates they can identify with.
This being so, the government’s
electoral machine is targeting the Ni-Nis, who represent an estimated 70% of
the population. Converting a sizeable portion of Ni-Nis and other non-believers
is a must: their votes will be much needed if Maduro is to be re-elected.
The official candidate
Nicolás Maduro, now 55, runs on the presidential PSUV ticket
but is supported by various leftist
political parties and organizations, including the Communist Party, regardless
of their differences.
He grew up in a politically-oriented home: in December 1967,
his parents took him to a theater in downtown Caracas to witness Beltrán Prieto
Figueroa announcing the birth of a political party, The People’s Electoral
Movement (MEP), which decades later merged with the PSUV.
Nicolás Maduro, Source: AFT/Contrapunto
By the time he reached the fourth grade in school, he was
debating with his teacher, in defense of the Cuban Revolution – which earned
him detention time at the school’s library. During his high school years, he joined
the Breakup Movement, a political grouping
led by Douglas Bravo.
His further ideological and political education did not happen
in academia, as he only made it through high school, but in grassroots organizing
and active participation in civilian militant causes.
He worked as a driver for the Caracas Metrobus public
company from 1991 to 1998. There he became a union leader. After meeting Chávez,
his political engagement deepened: he served on several key posts under the Chávez
Administrations and Chávez anointed him as his successor shortly before dying. He took
office in 2013.
Two benchmarks of Maduro’s mandate strongly influence
pro-government voter intent at the upcoming elections: the Local Supply and
Production Committees – known as CLAP – and Venezuela’s oil-backed crypto-currency,
the Petro.
The CLAP System
The CLAP is a subsidized food supply and distribution system
through local networks. It was developed and launched in order to alleviate the
food crisis, and it benefits 4 to 6 million families from the most vulnerable
strata of the population.
The system has been under close public scrutiny, as corruption
has tainted its dealings. President Maduro has acknowledged the problem, and
pledged to do justice.
Apart from the political
Right, some sectors of the critical
Left have highlighted the shortcomings of CLAP as a social control and
patronage system which, according to them, establishes a “food in
exchange for votes” socio-political bartering.
In any case, it is worth remembering that the PSUV won 18
out of 23 states in last year’s elections, despite the monstrous crises
Venezuela is going through.
Sixty-seven year-old Cristobal
Ramirez told Agence France Presse
the reason why he voted for the PSUV at last year’s elections: “While the
opposition hides our food, the government extends its hand with sustenance”.
Ramirez, who makes his living as a mechanic, rejects the violence during last
year’s street clashes, and he cast his ballot hoping for peace.
Cristobal Ramirez in his shop in Petare. Photo: AFT/Contrapunto
He admits to
having toyed with the idea of voting for the opposition, but he refrained from
doing so basically because, he says, he has never heard them talk about the
poor: “They are not even in power, and yet they treat us badly. Imagine if they
won power: they would kill us all!”
The Petro
El Petro is the
government’s oil-backed cryptocurrency, created as an emergency measure aimed
at circumventing the so-called “asymmetric economic
warfare”. Venezuela is the first country in the world to introduce a
government-controlled cryptocurrency.
Whether the Petro will be successful or not, is irrelevant
at this moment. What is significant, in the context of the campaign for the
upcoming elections, is that this strategy is an intelligent move on the part of
the government, for it signals a rejection of the established economic norms
and global financial structures, which have proved quite inadequate to deal
with Latin American realities.
Chavismo has been grossly underestimated, and this is why it
remains in power. Facing US economic sanctions, Maduro took solution-driven
action (implementing the cryptocurrency) which was widely perceived as a defense
mechanism on behalf of the economic dignity of the people.
This, undoubtedly,
strengthened his figure as protector of the masses and heightened his stand as a
strong leader looking out for his people’s best interests. This, in turn,
raised the collective morale of the PSUV followers, and reassured many among those
whom official propaganda calls “Chavez’s
Children”.
The Petro is a token of good faith: the solution which
the government provides to economic bullying – and, as such, it is an important
symbol of economic self-determination.
On Tuesday March 6, the Conservative opposition-controlled National
Assembly rejected and annulled the Petro as a financial mechanism, and declared
it unconstitutional.
On
March 19, the US government issued an Executive
Order prohibiting business dealings with the Venezuelan cryptocurrency.
Unrest,
hyperinflation, scarcity and crime
Under Maduro’s mandate, Venezuela has experienced continuous
socio-political unrest, hyperinflation, scarcity and crime. Internal and
external factors account for the situation. President Maduro has been sanctioned, and his
government openly threatened with regime-change protocol by the CIA. The Organization
of American States (OAS) has accused his government of human rights violations,
and the Conservative opposition accuses him of being a dictator.
Nevertheless, Maduro is confident that he will be
re-elected. In an interview with
political activist Marco Enríquez-Ominami, he answered questions about the
electoral process and about being labeled a dictator.
The President – in short –
said that the people will answer that question with their vote: “As of the year
2000, we’ve had a total of 24 elections, and the revolutionary forces have won
22 out of those 24 elections – including presidential, state and municipal
races, as well as referendums (…) This year we are going to have the 25th
election in 18 years, and I’m sure that we are about to obtain our 23th
victory”.
Upon allegations that the upcoming elections could be rigged,
Maduro has requested the UN to send international
observers to oversee the whole process. The Conservative
opposition, on its part, has asked the UN not to validate
what they call “an
electoral simulation”.
Venezuelans have the final say.