France's National Front political party leader Marine Le Pen votes in a meeting of the Committee on International Trade in Brussels, April, 2015. Geert Vanden Wijngaert / Press Association. All rights reserved.David Cameron’s
decision to hold a referendum over Britain’s EU
membership gave him enough support among Conservative MP’s to secure a
second term as Prime Minister. The rise in support for populist politicians
since the 2008 sovereign debt crisis reflects a growing disillusionment among
British voters that has resulted in Eurosceptic Tories
establishing themselves in the hierarchy of Westminster. The refugee overspill and
the threat of terrorism has created a perfect storm of paranoia and
exceptionalism in Britain that has consolidated far-right support. 

David Cameron
took a monumental risk in aligning with the far-right faction of his own party
to retain power and is now facing resignation if the ‘Leave’ vote carries on
June 23rd.

Boris
Johnson is primed to become leader of the Conservative Party should Cameron
be forced to resign. The former Mayor of London’s rise through the Party since
becoming an MP for Henley in 2001 has coincided with perpetuating Euroscepticism
through his work as a journalist and politician. His most recent quotes in
which he referred to Barack
Obama as ‘…part-Kenyan’ and a series of other racially offensive statements
infer a xenophobic tendency from the man leading the ‘Leave’ campaign.

The refugee
crisis has resulted in calls from the Conservative Party and UKIP to seal off
Britain’s borders, shunning responsibility from the largest human displacement
facing Europe since the end of World War II. This comes at a time when the Schengen
Agreement already faces
restructuring following the ISIS attacks in Paris and Brussels.

The latest Financial Times poll
indicates the ‘Stay’ side with a slender lead at 46% compared with 41% opting
to leave the Union, with 13% undecided. These predictive
polls are not wholly reliable as was exemplified by the Conservative Party
winning an overall majority in last year’s general election with
the most reputable pollsters predicting a hung
parliament. 

The key factor
will be the level of voter turnout, particularly among young voters who will
more than likely vote to remain in the Union.

British and Irish fallout

The SNP
could decide to push for another independence referendum given their
overwhelming desire to stay in the EU. However, the economic uncertainty that
defeated the pro-independence vote in 2014 would only be compounded following
Brexit and it could remain a protracted process.

Northern
Ireland, already a country with a struggling domestic economy, could also
become an increased security risk for any future London government given its
fragmented internal politics and lingering terrorist threat. The long-term
strategy of how the shared
border with the Republic and trade between the two states will be managed has
not been given any clear direction by the ‘Leave’ campaign. The Irish
government stands to lose as much as any stakeholder if the ‘Leave’ vote
carries, potentially severely damaging its economy and special political
relationship with Britain.   

The wider
security, economic and political implications will only become clearer in time
as prolonged
negotiations would be carried out to manage the complex legal details of
Britain actually leaving the EU. Political analysts still believe a compromise
could be reached given the provisions of the Lisbon Treaty which provide for a
two year limit on negotiations for a country leaving the EU. Britain could
follow the Norwegian model by remaining in the EEA,
allowing the free movement of people and services while removing itself as a
political entity from the Union.

Yet, given the
likelihood that Johnson or another Eurosceptic will assume leadership of the
Conservative Party if Brexit occurs, xenophobia and nationalism would fuel the
discourse of any future European policy from London.

There is also
the risk of Brexit inducing a domino effect across the European Union with
other far-right parties’ pressuring their governments to consider terminating
their membership. Austria narrowly avoided a far-right candidate, Norbert Hofer,
becoming President for the first time. The Germanic nationalist ran his
campaign on anti-EU sentiment and fears over asylum seekers. The Netherlands
is in the midst of considering a referendum on its membership due to the
migrant crisis – seeing a founding member leave would represent a devastating
blow to the future of European integration.  

Not since the
interwar years has a great power exhibited such paranoia and isolationism in
relations with its European neighbours. Voting to leave the European Union and
consolidating support for the far-right would be the most regressive political
decision in international post-war politics and the effects will be damning on
Britain and Europe if carried out.