NEW YORK, NY — The 2018 midterm election is days away, and while gambling on U.S. politics is mostly limited to small university-linked trading sites in our country, that’s not the case abroad. And one bet in particular could turn $100 into $1,400.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for both Democrats and Republicans, particularly President Donald Trump in the Nov. 6 midterm election. Should Democrats gain a majority in both chambers of Congress, they’d control the committees investigating Trump — including the one overseeing the Russia probe — and they’d be able to subpoena members of the West Wing and Cabinet. Democrats would also be able to block Trump’s legislative agenda and judicial nominations and impeach him, however unlikely that may be.
Hardcore election sites and betting sites alike favor Democrats’ chances at seizing control of the House. But their outlook is much dimmer when it comes to the Senate. And betting sites sometimes disagree on Democrats’ chances in certain races.
Senate Majority Odds
Republicans have a razor-thin margin for loss in the Senate, at a 51-49 majority. But on Nov. 6, Democrats will have to defend 25 seats — compared to just eight for Republicans — and they must net at least two seats to take control of the chamber. While that doesn’t seem impossible, oddsmakers and election gurus aren’t keen on their chances.
RealClearPolitics expects Republicans to see a net gain of two seats, increasing their margin to 53. FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats just a 17 percent chance to take the Senate.
Several betting markets give Democrats even worse odds.
If you think pollsters and oddsmakers are getting the tea leaves wrong, a $100 bet on Democrats to take a Senate majority would give you a win of $1,449.28 on Smarkets. If you placed that same $100 bet on Heritage, you’d take home $476.19
House Majority Odds
Democrats have to flip 25 House seats from red to blue, and almost everyone thinks they’ll be able to do it. But some are more confident than others. While the election gurus at FiveThirtyEight give Democrats an 86 percent chance at taking the House, gambling sites are giving them much more modest odds, with most at about 66-67 percent.
Interestingly, there are a couple outliers in this group. If you placed a $100 bet on MyBookie on Democrats gaining a majority in the House, you’d take home an $83.33 profit if that happens. But if you did the same on Betdaq, you’d see just a $28.21 profit.
In an interview with Patch, Callum Wilson, a spokesman for the online betting odds aggregator Oddschecker, noted gamblers who want to bet on Democrats should home in on MyBookie, where the potential payout would be largest. He also noted there’s a significant gap between how confident FiveThirtyEight is and the confidence of most bookies.
“There’s absolutely a massive discrepancy,” he said.
That gap could be explained by the pool sizes of each, Wilson said. The pool of people who take polls is smaller and can become skewed. Meanwhile, many people gamble and they often come from all walks of life, regardless of demographics.
Below, take a look at how bookies and bettors are looking at some of the tightest individual races.
Competitive House Races
California 39th District
The retirement of U.S. Rep. Ed Royce, a 13-term Republican, opened the door for hungry Democrats salivating at the opportunity to flip a reliably red seat. They chose veterans and education advocate Gil Cisneros to face Republican Young Kim, a former state legislator.
FiveThirtyEight called the race a toss-up, but gave Cisneros a 58 percent chance to win. Two polls muddied that picture slightly, each giving Cisneros just a 1-point edge. A third poll showed Kim ahead by 10 points.
Here’s how gambling sites view the race and how much you’d stand to win if you bet on the Democrat:
Smarkets
PlayNow
Sportsbet
Florida’s 26th District
Incumbent U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Republican, is locked in a tough challenge from nonprofit director Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who previously ran for state Senate. Curbelo won re-election in 2016 by 12 points, but the district voted for Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the past two presidential elections.
Polls have done nothing but further cloud an already hazy picture. According to RealClearPolitics, two polls showed Curbelo with a slight edge, one by 3 points and another by 1 point. But Mucarsel-Powell took a 1-point lead in the most recent poll, taken last week.
FiveThirtyEight called the race a toss-up, with Mucarsel-Powell having a 56.2 percent chance of winning.
Here’s how gambler’s and oddsmakers see the race:
Smarkets
PlayNow
Sportsbet
Maine’s 2nd District
U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, a Republican, seeks re-election against Democrat Jared Golden in a Trump-supporting district where the incumbent hasn’t lost since 1916. And while it may seem like Golden has long odds at first, Democrats are targeting the seat. The district previously voted for Obama and had been Democrat-controlled for two decades before Poliquin wrestled it away in 2014.
According to RealClearPolitics, just one poll had Poliquin leading — by a narrow 5 points, no less — and two more recent surveys showed the two were tied. FiveThirtyEight, meanwhile, is much more bullish on the Democrat, giving Golden a 61 percent chance to win.
Here’s how bettors and bookies see the race:
Smarkets
PlayNow
Sportsbet
New Mexico’s 2nd District
With Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce opting to run for New Mexico governor, state Rep. Yvette Herrell decided to take a run at the federal office with the support of the House Freedom Caucus. She’ll face Xochitl Torres Small, a Democrat, in a district that voted for Trump, Mitt Romney and John McCain in the past three presidential elections.
But Democrats see an opportunity, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee even pumping nearly $1.5 million into the race as of Sept. 30.
RealClearPolitics gives Herrell a 4-point edge, but the latest poll had her lead down to just 1 point. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight called the race a toss-up and gave Herrell a 54.5 percent chance of winning.
Here’s how gamblers and oddsmakers are looking at the race:
Smarkets
PlayNow
Sportsbet
New York’s 19th District
U.S. Rep. John Faso, the Republican incumbent, seeks a second term and is facing Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado, an attorney, along with a Green Party candidate and an independent. The eastern New York district voted for Trump after backing Obama in earlier election cycles.
RealClearPolitics showed Faso with an ever-so-slight 1-point lead over Delgado in the latest poll. A second poll showed Delgado with a 3-point lead, while a third put Faso ahead by 5 points.
FiveThirtyEight called the race a toss-up, but gave Delgado a 55.8 chance of winning.
Here’s how bettors and bookies see the election:
Smarkets
PlayNow
Sportsbet
North Carolina’s 9th District
After incumbent Republican Robert Pittenger fell in his party’s primary to pastor Mark Harris, Democrats hope businessman Dan McCready can flip the seat from red to blue in a district that voted for Trump and runs from Charlotte to Fayetteville. McCready had reportedly raised more than double the money compared to Harris at $4.3 million.
FiveThirtyEight called the race a toss-up and gave Harris a 52.5 percent chance of winning. But RealClearPolitics painted a rosier picture for Democrats, with two polls giving McCready a slight edge at 4 and 7 points. A third poll gave Harris a 5-point lead.
Here’s how gambling sites and gamblers see the race playing out:
Smarkets
PlayNow
Sportsbet
Texas 7th District
Longtime incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. John Culberson is running against attorney Lizzie Pannill Fletcher in this Houston-area swing district. And while the district voted for Hillary Clinton and Culberson in 2016, Democrats have their work cut out for them. Culberson has held the seat since 2000 and no Democrat has held the seat since the mid-1960s.
But that could change.
According to RealClearPolitics, Culberson’s lead has shrunk to just 1 point, down from 3 points in September. And FiveThirtyEight actually gave Pannill Fletcher a 52.4 percent chance to win the seat.
Here’s how oddsmakers and bettors see the race:
Smarkets
PlayNow
Sportsbet
Competitive Senate Races
Arizona
In Arizona, incumbent U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake, an outspoken Trump foe, decided not to seek re-election after winning in 2012. Democrats seized on the opportunity, nominating U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema to face Republican U.S. Rep. Martha McSally. It will be an uphill battle, though. The state hasn’t had a Democratic senator since Dennis DeConcini retired in 1995.
FiveThirtyEight is bullish on the Democrats’ chances — giving Sinema a 63.8 percent chance of winning. RealClearPolitics gave McSally the slightest edge at .7 percent, but Sinema had a 3-point lead in the latest poll.
Here’s how gamblers and betting sites see the race:
Smarkets
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Bovada
5Dimes
Oddschecker
MyBookie
PlayNow
Sportsbet
Nevada
In Nevada, incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Dean Heller faces a re-election challenge from Democrat Jacky Rosen in a state that Clinton took in 2016. Heller was appointed to the position in 2011 and then won in 2012 by just 1.2 percentage points.
FiveThirtyEight called the race a toss-up, but gave Heller a 59 percent chance of winning. Pollsters seem to agree, with RealClearPolitics finding Heller the frontrunner with a lead of just 1.7 points. Three of the last four polls had Heller’s lead range from 2 to 7 points.
Here’s how bettors and bookies see the race playing out:
Smarkets
Bovada
BetOnline
MyBookie
5Dimes
PlayNow
Sportsbet
Missouri
U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, the incumbent Democrat, will try to fend off Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley and three others vying for the seat, though Hawley is the only candidate expected to mount any serious challenge.
FiveThirtyEight is optimistic about McCaskill’s chances, giving her a 58.1 percent chance of pulling out a victory. But RealClearPolitics is skeptical. An aggregation of polls there shows her trailing Hawley by 2 percentage points, with the most recent polls showing her lagging behind by 4 points.
Here’s how betting sites and gamblers see the race:
Smarkets
Bovada
BetOnline
MyBookie
5Dimes
PlayNow
Sportsbet
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